This paper demonstrates that the use of ensemble methods and carefully calibrating the decision threshold can significantly improve the performance of machine learning methods for morphological word decomposition. We employ two algorithms which come from a family of generative probabilistic models. The models consider segment boundaries as hidden variables and include probabilities for letter transitions within segments. The advantage of this model family is that it can learn from small datasets and easily generalises to larger datasets. The first algorithm PROMODES, which participated in the Morpho Challenge 2009 (an international competition for unsupervised morphological analysis) employs a lower order model whereas the second algorithm PROMODES-H is a novel development of the first using a higher order model. We present the mathematical description for both algorithms, conduct experiments on the morphologically rich language Zulu and compare characteristics of both algorithms based on the experimental results.